Indiana's football team is set to make a splash in the 2026 season, according to ESPN's new Football Power Index (FPI) ratings. Despite an undefeated season and national championship win in 2025, the Hoosiers only rank 6th in the preseason FPI, with an FPI of 23.1. This ranking places them as the third-highest-rated team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State and Oregon. The FPI model projects Indiana's win-loss record at 10-2, with a challenging strength of schedule, ranking 33rd nationally and 11th in the Big Ten. (I find it interesting that the model doesn't give Indiana the top spot despite their impressive recent success. What's the reasoning behind this? Perhaps it's a reflection of the team's reliance on a strong schedule to prove their mettle.)
ESPN's FPI takes into account various factors, including returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure. The model predicts a 57.0% chance of Indiana making the College Football Playoffs, an 18.7% chance of winning the Big Ten championship, and a 12.8% chance of playing in the national championship game. These projections suggest that while Indiana is a strong contender, they may not be the favorite to win it all.
ESPN's FPI is similar to Bill Connelly's SP+ model, which also ranks Indiana as the 5th-best team in the nation. Connelly highlights the remarkable turnaround of Indiana's football program, noting the team's ability to go from 9-27 over three seasons to 27-2 over two. He attributes this success to the coaching staff's scouting and development advantages, led by Curt Cignetti and coordinators Mike Shanahan and Bryant Haines.
Connelly's SP+ model projects Indiana to have the 31st-hardest strength of schedule nationally and 12th in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers' average win expectancy is 9.9 wins out of 12 regular season games. The model gives Indiana a 99.9% chance of reaching 6+ wins and a 32.8% chance of reaching 11+ wins. These projections indicate that Indiana is expected to perform well in the Big Ten, but may face a tougher path to a national championship.
While Indiana's FPI ranking is 6th, Connelly's SP+ model places them 5th. The FPI and SP+ models differ slightly in their strength of schedule rankings, with FPI rating Indiana's schedule as 33rd nationally, while SP+ ranks it 31st. The projected win totals also vary, with FPI predicting 10.2 wins and SP+ predicting 9.9 wins. Despite these minor discrepancies, both models highlight Indiana's potential for success in the upcoming season.
(I find it fascinating that the FPI and SP+ models provide slightly different insights. It's a reminder that different metrics and models can offer unique perspectives on team performance. It's a challenge for analysts to reconcile these variations and provide a comprehensive understanding of a team's strengths and weaknesses.)
In conclusion, Indiana's football program is poised for a strong showing in 2026, according to both ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+ model. The team's recent success and coaching staff's expertise suggest a bright future. However, the rankings and projections also highlight the challenges and competition they will face. It will be intriguing to see how the season unfolds and whether Indiana can live up to the high expectations set by these models.
